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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1477

Elo1478

Santiago PonzinibbiovsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:29

Style matchupSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fightervsAlex Morono: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1477

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago PonzinibbioMetricAlex Morono

4.78

Strikes / min

4.90

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

61%

Strike defense

55%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.32

71%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago PonzinibbioAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago PonzinibbioTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

28% acc · 89%

55% acc · 39%

Body

36% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 98%

Distance

27% acc · 89%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

Ground

57% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 155

Sig Strikes

38 / 131

44%

Sig Str %

28.7%

66 / 155

Total Strikes

38 / 131

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Morono	17 / 55	17 / 55	0 / 0
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	22 / 42	22 / 42	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	13 / 50	13 / 50	0 / 0
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	26 / 73	26 / 73	0 / 1
3	Alex Morono	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 0

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23