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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Santiago Luna won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1511
Santiago Luna
Elo1483

Santiago LunavsQuang LeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Luna won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:48

Style matchupSantiago Luna: WrestlervsQuang Le: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Santiago Luna wins(82.1%)

Actual result: Santiago Luna wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Luna at -154 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Santiago Luna is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Quang Le has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Santiago Luna has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Quang Le has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Santiago Luna has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Luna
Red Corner
VS
Quang Le
Blue Corner
-154
(61%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1511
Elo
1483
21
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago Luna
oldest →
W
vs Angel Pacheco · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Jun 26
latest
Quang Le
oldest →
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Aug 24
L
KOvs Xiao Long · Nov 24
W
SUBvs Gaston Bolanos · May 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago LunaMetricQuang Le
8.20
Strikes / min
2.82
3.82
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
71%
Strike defense
49%
4.21
TDs / 15 min
2.90
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.38Δ 6.15 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1489Strikes8.2 vs 2.8Takedowns4.2 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.40Form0.0 vs -0.1
Santiago LunaQuang Le

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Santiago Luna(3 fights)Quang Le(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +28.5|Blue -28.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Grappler Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago LunaTargetQuang Le

By target zone

13
34% acc · 87%
Head
9
47% acc · 75%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
3
75% acc · 25%
1
100% acc · 7%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

9
27% acc · 60%
Distance
10
45% acc · 83%
3
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 17%
3
75% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Santiago Luna rounds
0
even
0
Quang Le rounds
Round 1Santiago Luna edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:47
Knockdowns2
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
15 / 40
Sig Strikes
12 / 24
37%
Sig Str %
50%
17 / 42
Total Strikes
13 / 25
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:47
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Quang Le12 / 2413 / 250 / 10
1Santiago Luna15 / 4017 / 420 / 10

Santiago Luna

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3

Quang Le

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4