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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Santiago Luna won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1476

Santiago LunavsAngel PachecoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Santiago Luna won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSantiago Luna: WrestlervsAngel Pacheco: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Santiago Luna wins(93.8%)

Actual result: Santiago Luna wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Santiago Luna at -770 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Luna has 30pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Santiago Luna has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Santiago Luna has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Santiago Luna

Red Corner

Angel Pacheco

Blue Corner

-770

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1511

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Santiago Luna

oldest →

KOvs Quang Le · Sep 25

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Jun 26

latest

Angel Pacheco

oldest →

vs Caolan Loughran · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Santiago LunaMetricAngel Pacheco

8.20

Strikes / min

7.58

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

10.56

71%

Strike defense

41%

4.21

TDs / 15 min

0.33

50%

Takedown defense

16%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.38Δ 7.36 — meaningful gap-2.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Santiago LunaAngel Pacheco

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Santiago Luna(3 fights)Angel Pacheco(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.6|Blue -35.6

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -532.0|Blue +532.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Santiago LunaTargetAngel Pacheco

By target zone

55% acc · 74%

Head

21% acc · 73%

64% acc · 23%

Body

68% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

102

54% acc · 78%

Distance

25% acc · 93%

75% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Santiago Luna rounds

even

Angel Pacheco rounds

Round 1Santiago Luna edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control0:50

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Santiago Luna edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns2

Control1:31

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Santiago Luna edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns1

Control1:02

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

131 / 227

Sig Strikes

56 / 216

56%

Sig Str %

25%

155 / 257

Total Strikes

77 / 238

5 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:23

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Angel Pacheco	25 / 74	26 / 75	0 / 0	0
1	Santiago Luna	26 / 56	31 / 61	2 / 2	0
2	Angel Pacheco	14 / 68	23 / 77	0 / 0	0
2	Santiago Luna	56 / 92	63 / 103	2 / 2	0
3	Angel Pacheco	17 / 74	28 / 86	1 / 1	0
3	Santiago Luna	49 / 79	61 / 93	1 / 1	1

Santiago Luna

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Angel Pacheco

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2