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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sam Stout won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1351

Sam StoutvsSpencer FisherUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Sam Stout won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsSpencer Fisher: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Sam Stout wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Stout has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Spencer Fisher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

Spencer Fisher

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1355

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

Spencer FisherL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 10

vs Curt Warburton · Oct 10

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 11

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricSpencer Fisher

4.17

Strikes / min

3.17

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

57%

Strike defense

64%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.67

77%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutSpencer Fisher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)Spencer Fisher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.7|Blue -3.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetSpencer Fisher

By target zone

20% acc · 44%

Head

33% acc · 66%

61% acc · 31%

Body

93% acc · 20%

94% acc · 25%

Leg

90% acc · 14%

By position

34% acc · 98%

Distance

40% acc · 92%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

Spencer Fisher rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:37

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sam Stout edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sam Stout edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control1:11

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 189

Sig Strikes

65 / 156

33.7%

Sig Str %

41%

96 / 234

Total Strikes

89 / 184

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

49.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Spencer Fisher	20 / 45	30 / 58	0 / 0
1	Sam Stout	15 / 59	22 / 75	1 / 2
2	Spencer Fisher	19 / 49	31 / 62	0 / 0
2	Sam Stout	24 / 57	40 / 77	1 / 3
3	Spencer Fisher	26 / 62	28 / 64	0 / 1
3	Sam Stout	25 / 73	34 / 82	2 / 3

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Spencer Fisher

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5