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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sam Stout won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Sam StoutvsPaul TaylorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Sam Stout won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsPaul Taylor: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Sam Stout wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Stout has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

Paul Taylor

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

Paul Taylor

oldest →

KOvs Gabe Ruediger · Feb 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricPaul Taylor

4.17

Strikes / min

4.44

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.27

77%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutPaul Taylor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)Paul Taylor(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.0|Blue +135.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -46.7|Blue +46.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetPaul Taylor

By target zone

25% acc · 54%

Head

39% acc · 63%

84% acc · 15%

Body

71% acc · 18%

80% acc · 31%

Leg

82% acc · 19%

By position

105

36% acc · 98%

Distance

135

47% acc · 96%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

Paul Taylor rounds

Round 1Paul Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:07

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paul Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:19

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Paul Taylor edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:01

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

107 / 295

Sig Strikes

140 / 296

36%

Sig Str %

47.7%

108 / 296

Total Strikes

140 / 296

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Taylor	50 / 84	50 / 84	0 / 1
1	Sam Stout	38 / 99	38 / 99	1 / 1
2	Paul Taylor	38 / 89	38 / 89	0 / 1
2	Sam Stout	30 / 83	31 / 84	0 / 0
3	Paul Taylor	52 / 123	52 / 123	0 / 1
3	Sam Stout	39 / 113	39 / 113	0 / 1

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Paul Taylor

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2