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Lightweight

3 Rounds

John Makdessi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1476

Sam StoutvsJohn MakdessiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsJohn Makdessi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(68.5%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Makdessi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

John Makdessi

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1355

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricJohn Makdessi

4.17

Strikes / min

5.52

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

57%

Strike defense

68%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.00

77%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutJohn Makdessi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)John Makdessi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.7|Blue +120.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -62.0|Blue +62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetJohn Makdessi

By target zone

10% acc · 49%

Head

53% acc · 79%

48% acc · 25%

Body

45% acc · 11%

89% acc · 25%

Leg

75% acc · 11%

By position

17% acc · 98%

Distance

53% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

John Makdessi rounds

Round 1John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 369

Sig Strikes

84 / 157

16.7%

Sig Str %

53%

63 / 369

Total Strikes

84 / 157

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Makdessi	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 0
1	Sam Stout	21 / 120	21 / 120	0 / 1
2	John Makdessi	29 / 56	29 / 56	0 / 0
2	Sam Stout	26 / 123	26 / 123	0 / 2
3	John Makdessi	31 / 54	31 / 54	0 / 0
3	Sam Stout	16 / 126	16 / 126	0 / 2

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20