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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1473

Sam StoutvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Stout has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1355

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricJeremy Stephens

4.17

Strikes / min

3.13

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

57%

Strike defense

57%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

1.10

77%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -117.4|Blue +117.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

27% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 75%

81% acc · 19%

Body

88% acc · 13%

94% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 13%

By position

36% acc · 84%

Distance

43% acc · 85%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

83% acc · 9%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Sam Stout edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:48

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 181

Sig Strikes

55 / 119

38.3%

Sig Str %

48%

76 / 187

Total Strikes

64 / 128

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	26 / 35	27 / 36	1 / 1	0
1	Sam Stout	23 / 57	25 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	17 / 38	24 / 45	1 / 2	0
2	Sam Stout	21 / 61	23 / 63	0 / 0	1
3	Jeremy Stephens	12 / 46	13 / 47	1 / 2	0
3	Sam Stout	26 / 63	28 / 65	0 / 0	0

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27