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Lightweight

3 Rounds

James Krause won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1493

Sam StoutvsJames KrauseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

James Krause won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:47

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsJames Krause: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(65.9%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Stout has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

James Krause

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1355

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL3 streak

oldest →

vs Caros Fodor · Feb 13

vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

James Krause

oldest →

vs Alex White · Jan 18

KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18

KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19

vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20

vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricJames Krause

4.17

Strikes / min

4.79

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

57%

Strike defense

61%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.96

77%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking+0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutJames Krause

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)James Krause(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.8|Blue +137.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -46.5|Blue +46.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetJames Krause

By target zone

15% acc · 33%

Head

44% acc · 71%

56% acc · 25%

Body

76% acc · 14%

79% acc · 42%

Leg

83% acc · 16%

By position

31% acc · 90%

Distance

51% acc · 95%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 4%

50% acc · 7%

Ground

20% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

James Krause rounds

Round 1James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:31

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:28

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:21

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 226

Sig Strikes

96 / 188

33%

Sig Str %

50%

81 / 234

Total Strikes

110 / 204

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Krause	30 / 60	39 / 71	0 / 0	0
1	Sam Stout	21 / 52	25 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	James Krause	25 / 57	30 / 62	1 / 2	0
2	Sam Stout	26 / 81	30 / 85	0 / 0	0
3	James Krause	41 / 71	41 / 71	0 / 0	1
3	Sam Stout	26 / 93	26 / 93	1 / 1	0

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

James Krause

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13