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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Frankie Perez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Sam Stout
Elo1361
Frankie Perez

Sam StoutvsFrankie PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Frankie Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Model Prediction: Frankie Perez wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Frankie Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Perez at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frankie Perez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Stout has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout
Red Corner
VS
Frankie Perez
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1355
Elo
1361
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Caros Fodor · Feb 13
L
SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13
W
vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13
L
KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14
L
KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15
latest
Frankie PerezL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Johnny Case · Jan 15
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 16
L
vs Chris Wade · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricFrankie Perez
4.17
Strikes / min
1.64
4.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
57%
Strike defense
54%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
1.75
77%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1480 vs 1482Strikes52.3 vs 16.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.11 vs 1.00Form-0.6 vs -1.0
Sam StoutFrankie Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Sam Stout(10 fights)Frankie Perez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.9|Blue +5.9
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +3.5|Blue -3.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetFrankie Perez

By target zone

1
7% acc · 50%
Head
8
73% acc · 67%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 17%
1
50% acc · 50%
Leg
2
100% acc · 17%

By position

2
13% acc · 100%
Distance
6
75% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
86% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sam Stout rounds
0
even
1
Frankie Perez rounds
Round 1Frankie Perez edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 16
Sig Strikes
12 / 15
12%
Sig Str %
80%
2 / 16
Total Strikes
12 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frankie Perez12 / 1512 / 150 / 00
1Sam Stout2 / 162 / 160 / 00

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12

Frankie Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4