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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sam Stout won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Sam StoutvsCody McKenzieUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Sam Stout won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsCody McKenzie: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Sam Stout wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Stout enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cody McKenzie has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sam Stout has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout

Red Corner

Cody McKenzie

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL4 streak

oldest →

vs Caros Fodor · Feb 13

SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13

KOvs KJ Noons · Apr 14

KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15

KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15

latest

Cody McKenzie

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11

SUBvs Vagner Rocha · Sep 11

SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12

KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12

vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricCody McKenzie

4.17

Strikes / min

1.74

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

57%

Strike defense

67%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

2.50

77%

Takedown defense

14%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam StoutCody McKenzie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Stout(10 fights)Cody McKenzie(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.1|Blue +135.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetCody McKenzie

By target zone

14% acc · 31%

Head

29% acc · 74%

48% acc · 54%

Body

86% acc · 19%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

27% acc · 91%

Distance

31% acc · 84%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Stout rounds

even

Cody McKenzie rounds

Round 1Cody McKenzie edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 2Sam Stout edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sam Stout edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:38

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 189

Sig Strikes

31 / 90

28.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

59 / 194

Total Strikes

37 / 99

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 13

50%

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

1:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody McKenzie	14 / 29	20 / 38	1 / 5	0
1	Sam Stout	13 / 43	16 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Cody McKenzie	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 5	0
2	Sam Stout	20 / 65	22 / 67	0 / 1	0
3	Cody McKenzie	6 / 31	6 / 31	0 / 3	0
3	Sam Stout	21 / 81	21 / 81	1 / 1	1

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Cody McKenzie

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7