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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sam Sicilia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1356

Sam SiciliavsYaotzin MezaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Sam Sicilia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sam Sicilia wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Sam Sicilia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Sicilia at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yaotzin Meza threatens submissions; Sam Sicilia has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Sam Sicilia has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Yaotzin Meza has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Sicilia

Red Corner

Yaotzin Meza

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1359

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam SiciliaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 14

KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16

vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17

latest

Yaotzin Meza

oldest →

KOvs Chad Mendes · Dec 12

SUBvs John Albert · Jul 13

vs Sergio Pettis · Jun 14

vs Damian Stasiak · Apr 15

vs Arnold Allen · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam SiciliaMetricYaotzin Meza

2.46

Strikes / min

1.43

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

1.62

59%

Strike defense

64%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

1.06

70%

Takedown defense

18%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam SiciliaYaotzin Meza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Sicilia(10 fights)Yaotzin Meza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam SiciliaTargetYaotzin Meza

By target zone

29% acc · 83%

Head

40% acc · 56%

20% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

56% acc · 28%

By position

11% acc · 25%

Distance

46% acc · 89%

43% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

86% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Sicilia rounds

even

Yaotzin Meza rounds

Round 1Sam Sicilia edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:58

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Yaotzin Meza edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:59

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Sam Sicilia edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:31

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 41

Sig Strikes

18 / 37

31.7%

Sig Str %

46%

33 / 66

Total Strikes

39 / 60

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 9

100%

TD %

5.3%

Sub Att

Rev

8:28

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yaotzin Meza	1 / 3	11 / 15	0 / 1	1
1	Sam Sicilia	3 / 8	7 / 14	1 / 1	2
2	Yaotzin Meza	11 / 24	14 / 27	1 / 6	0
2	Sam Sicilia	5 / 22	8 / 25	0 / 0	0
3	Yaotzin Meza	6 / 10	14 / 18	0 / 2	0
3	Sam Sicilia	4 / 11	18 / 27	1 / 1	2

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Yaotzin Meza

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6