← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gavin Tucker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1472

Sam SiciliavsGavin TuckerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Gavin Tucker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sam Sicilia wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Gavin Tucker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Sicilia at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gavin Tucker threatens submissions; Sam Sicilia has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Sam Sicilia has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gavin Tucker (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Sicilia

Red Corner

Gavin Tucker

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1359

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam SiciliaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 14

KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15

vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16

latest

Gavin TuckerL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Seungwoo Choi · Jul 19

SUBvs Justin Jaynes · Aug 20

vs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 20

KOvs Dan Ige · Mar 21

SUBvs Diego Lopes · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam SiciliaMetricGavin Tucker

2.46

Strikes / min

4.29

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.13

70%

Takedown defense

53%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam SiciliaGavin Tucker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Sicilia(10 fights)Gavin Tucker(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -112.9|Blue +112.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam SiciliaTargetGavin Tucker

By target zone

11% acc · 90%

Head

21% acc · 45%

0% acc

Body

48% acc · 22%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

11% acc · 90%

Distance

33% acc · 96%

33% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Sicilia rounds

even

Gavin Tucker rounds

Round 1Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gavin Tucker edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:26

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 87

Sig Strikes

55 / 163

11.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

10 / 88

Total Strikes

60 / 168

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gavin Tucker	18 / 47	18 / 47	0 / 0
1	Sam Sicilia	2 / 12	2 / 12	0 / 0
2	Gavin Tucker	22 / 60	22 / 60	0 / 0
2	Sam Sicilia	2 / 24	2 / 24	0 / 0
3	Gavin Tucker	15 / 56	20 / 61	1 / 1
3	Sam Sicilia	6 / 51	6 / 52	0 / 0

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Gavin Tucker

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7