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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Sam Sicilia won · U-DEC R3
Elo1359
Sam Sicilia
Elo1456
Aaron Phillips editorial illustration

Sam SiciliavsAaron PhillipsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Sicilia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sam Sicilia wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Sam Sicilia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Sicilia at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Aaron Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Sicilia has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Sam Sicilia has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Phillips (53.5%).
  • Aaron Phillips has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Sicilia
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Phillips
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1359
Elo
1456
40
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'9"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam SiciliaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15
W
vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16
L
vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17
latest
Aaron PhillipsL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Matt Hobar · Aug 14
L
SUBvs Jack Shore · Jul 20
L
vs Gaston Bolanos · Apr 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam SiciliaMetricAaron Phillips
2.46
Strikes / min
1.51
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.66
59%
Strike defense
43%
1.45
TDs / 15 min
0.86
70%
Takedown defense
44%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.09Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes24.6 vs —Takedowns0.6 vs —Sub Atts0.20 vs —Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Sam SiciliaAaron Phillips

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Sam Sicilia(10 fights)Aaron Phillips(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -96.9|Blue +96.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam SiciliaTargetAaron Phillips

By target zone

28
53% acc · 76%
Head
5
22% acc · 28%
8
62% acc · 22%
Body
12
86% acc · 67%
1
50% acc · 3%
Leg
1
33% acc · 6%

By position

12
39% acc · 32%
Distance
9
35% acc · 50%
4
67% acc · 11%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 17%
21
68% acc · 57%
Ground
6
75% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Sam Sicilia rounds
0
even
0
Aaron Phillips rounds
Round 1Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control2:14
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control3:31
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 3Sam Sicilia edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns3
Control4:27
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
37 / 68
Sig Strikes
18 / 40
58.3%
Sig Str %
53.3%
95 / 129
Total Strikes
109 / 137
5 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
69.3%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
1
10:12
Ctrl Time
1:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aaron Phillips9 / 2725 / 440 / 00
1Sam Sicilia16 / 3623 / 431 / 30
2Aaron Phillips7 / 944 / 480 / 00
2Sam Sicilia8 / 1219 / 231 / 11
3Aaron Phillips2 / 440 / 450 / 01
3Sam Sicilia13 / 2053 / 633 / 40

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12

Aaron Phillips

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4