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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Yanal Ashmouz won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1552
Sam Patterson
Elo1495

Sam PattersonvsYanal AshmouzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Yanal Ashmouz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:15

Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Sam Patterson wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Yanal Ashmouz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Patterson at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yanal Ashmouz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Yanal Ashmouz has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Sam Patterson has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Patterson
Red Corner
VS
Yanal Ashmouz
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
1552
Elo
1495
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'9"
198.12 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam Patterson
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24
W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25
W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25
L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26
latest
Yanal Ashmouz
oldest →
L
vs Chris Duncan · Jul 23
W
vs Trevor Peek · Sep 24
L
vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam PattersonMetricYanal Ashmouz
2.62
Strikes / min
2.88
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
50%
Strike defense
50%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
3.24
33%
Takedown defense
64%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes2.7 vs 3.1Takedowns1.9 vs 0.9Sub Atts3.90 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Sam PattersonYanal Ashmouz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Sam Patterson(7 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +56.2|Blue -56.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam PattersonTargetYanal Ashmouz

By target zone

1
25% acc · 50%
Head
14
78% acc · 93%
0
Body
0
1
33% acc · 50%
Leg
1
50% acc · 7%

By position

2
29% acc · 100%
Distance
2
50% acc · 13%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
13
81% acc · 87%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sam Patterson rounds
0
even
1
Yanal Ashmouz rounds
Round 1Yanal Ashmouz edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
15 / 20
28%
Sig Str %
75%
2 / 7
Total Strikes
15 / 20
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yanal Ashmouz15 / 2015 / 201 / 10
1Sam Patterson2 / 72 / 70 / 00

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7

Yanal Ashmouz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4