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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sam Patterson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1552

Elo1492

Sam PattersonvsTrey WatersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Sam Patterson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:01

Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsTrey Waters: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Sam Patterson wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Patterson at -194 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Waters has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Patterson

Red Corner

Trey Waters

Blue Corner

-194

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+162

(38%)

1552

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam Patterson

oldest →

SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24

SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24

KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25

vs Michael Page · Mar 26

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26

latest

Trey WatersW2 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Quinlan · Apr 23

vs Billy Ray Goff · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam PattersonMetricTrey Waters

2.62

Strikes / min

6.39

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

50%

Strike defense

55%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.40

33%

Takedown defense

85%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam PattersonTrey Waters

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Patterson(7 fights)Trey Waters(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.7|Blue -59.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -294.0|Blue +294.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam PattersonTargetTrey Waters

By target zone

49% acc · 84%

Head

39% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 17%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

67% acc · 33%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Patterson rounds

even

Trey Waters rounds

Round 1Sam Patterson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 48

Sig Strikes

18 / 38

52%

Sig Str %

47%

25 / 48

Total Strikes

18 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trey Waters	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Sam Patterson	25 / 48	25 / 48	0 / 0	0

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Trey Waters

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3