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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sam Patterson won · SUB R1

Elo1552

Elo1467

Sam PattersonvsKiefer CrosbieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Sam Patterson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:50

Style matchupSam Patterson: Submission grapplervsKiefer Crosbie: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Sam Patterson wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Patterson threatens submissions; Kiefer Crosbie has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Kiefer Crosbie (52.9%).
Sam Patterson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Patterson

Red Corner

Kiefer Crosbie

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1552

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

5'11"

198.12 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam Patterson

oldest →

SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24

KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25

KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25

vs Michael Page · Mar 26

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26

latest

Kiefer CrosbieL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Jousset · Sep 23

KOvs Taiyilake Nueraji · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam PattersonMetricKiefer Crosbie

2.62

Strikes / min

4.46

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

5.80

50%

Strike defense

46%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

0.00

33%

Takedown defense

40%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam PattersonKiefer Crosbie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Patterson(7 fights)Kiefer Crosbie(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +84.4|Blue -84.4

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam PattersonTargetKiefer Crosbie

By target zone

33% acc · 89%

Head

50% acc · 44%

50% acc · 11%

Body

Leg

63% acc · 56%

By position

35% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Patterson rounds

even

Kiefer Crosbie rounds

Round 1Sam Patterson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:56

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 26

Sig Strikes

9 / 16

34%

Sig Str %

56%

13 / 31

Total Strikes

10 / 17

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kiefer Crosbie	9 / 16	10 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Sam Patterson	9 / 26	13 / 31	1 / 1	1

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7

Kiefer Crosbie

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3