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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Wellington Turman won · S-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Sam AlveyvsWellington TurmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Saturday, August 28, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Wellington Turman won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Wellington Turman wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Wellington Turman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wellington Turman at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Wellington Turman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Wellington Turman

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1431

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Wellington TurmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 21

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22

vs Andre Petroski · Nov 22

vs Randy Brown · Jun 23

SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricWellington Turman

3.28

Strikes / min

3.23

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

52%

Strike defense

45%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

1.55

82%

Takedown defense

42%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyWellington Turman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.8|Blue +53.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetWellington Turman

By target zone

52% acc · 81%

Head

47% acc · 52%

69% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 28%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

93% acc · 20%

By position

52% acc · 85%

Distance

56% acc · 91%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Wellington Turman rounds

Round 1Wellington Turman edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:58

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:08

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:48

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 122

Sig Strikes

69 / 119

52.3%

Sig Str %

63%

114 / 169

Total Strikes

75 / 126

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

13.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wellington Turman	13 / 16	17 / 20	2 / 5
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 20	42 / 55	0 / 0
2	Wellington Turman	24 / 44	24 / 44	0 / 2
2	Sam Alvey	26 / 44	32 / 50	0 / 0
3	Wellington Turman	32 / 59	34 / 62	0 / 2
3	Sam Alvey	34 / 58	40 / 64	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9