Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Nogueira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1431

Elo1387

Sam AlveyvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Rogerio Nogueira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at -350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rogerio Nogueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1431

Elo

1387

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricRogerio Nogueira

3.28

Strikes / min

2.43

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

52%

Strike defense

59%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.64

82%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.8|Blue -43.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -559.0|Blue +559.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

30% acc · 59%

Head

45% acc · 77%

100% acc · 6%

Body

71% acc · 19%

92% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 94%

Distance

48% acc · 77%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

57% acc · 15%

Ground

67% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 82

Sig Strikes

26 / 52

42%

Sig Str %

49.5%

34 / 82

Total Strikes

26 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rogerio Nogueira	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 0
1	Sam Alvey	26 / 64	26 / 64	0 / 0
2	Rogerio Nogueira	14 / 27	14 / 28	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	8 / 18	8 / 18	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12