Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · S-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1366

Sam AlveyvsRashad EvansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsRashad Evans: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Rashad Evans wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rashad Evans at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Rashad Evans has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Rashad Evans

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1431

Elo

1366

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Rashad EvansL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13

vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricRashad Evans

3.28

Strikes / min

2.14

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

52%

Strike defense

63%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

2.98

82%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyRashad Evans

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Rashad Evans(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.8|Blue -64.8

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetRashad Evans

By target zone

35% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 47%

89% acc · 40%

Body

56% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

32% acc · 50%

Distance

35% acc · 88%

80% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Rashad Evans rounds

Round 1Rashad Evans edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:05

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 87

Sig Strikes

17 / 45

47.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

51 / 99

Total Strikes

28 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

4:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rashad Evans	4 / 6	13 / 16	1 / 3
1	Sam Alvey	8 / 14	16 / 23	0 / 0
2	Rashad Evans	7 / 15	9 / 18	1 / 3
2	Sam Alvey	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0
3	Rashad Evans	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 2
3	Sam Alvey	20 / 45	23 / 48	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Rashad Evans

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12