Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ramazan Emeev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1428

Sam AlveyvsRamazan EmeevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Ramazan Emeev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsRamazan Emeev: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Ramazan Emeev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Ramazan Emeev has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sam Alvey has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Ramazan Emeev

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1431

Elo

1428

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Ramazan EmeevL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Rocco Martin · Nov 19

vs Niklas Stolze · Jul 20

vs David Zawada · Jan 21

vs Danny Roberts · Oct 21

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricRamazan Emeev

3.28

Strikes / min

2.53

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

52%

Strike defense

65%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

2.37

82%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyRamazan Emeev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Ramazan Emeev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetRamazan Emeev

By target zone

27% acc · 41%

Head

47% acc · 74%

88% acc · 24%

Body

83% acc · 13%

59% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

27% acc · 48%

Distance

45% acc · 58%

82% acc · 48%

Clinch

73% acc · 42%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Ramazan Emeev rounds

Round 1Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 70

Sig Strikes

38 / 71

39.3%

Sig Str %

53%

56 / 99

Total Strikes

51 / 84

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 9

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ramazan Emeev	14 / 23	18 / 27	1 / 2
1	Sam Alvey	7 / 18	18 / 30	0 / 0
2	Ramazan Emeev	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 2
2	Sam Alvey	6 / 22	8 / 24	0 / 0
3	Ramazan Emeev	14 / 24	23 / 33	0 / 5
3	Sam Alvey	16 / 30	30 / 45	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Ramazan Emeev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8