Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1431
Elo1508
Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Sam AlveyvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · Saturday, August 6, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:56

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Alvey has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
+520
(16%)
Vegas Odds
-720
(88%)
1431
Elo
1508
40
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20
L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21
L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22
latest
Michal Oleksiejczuk
oldest →
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25
W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
3.28
Strikes / min
5.85
3.63
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
52%
Strike defense
59%
0.06
TDs / 15 min
1.02
82%
Takedown defense
52%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.35Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1453 vs 1515Strikes3.3 vs 5.1Takedowns0.1 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.0
Sam AlveyMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -77.3|Blue +77.3
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

1
11% acc · 33%
Head
18
55% acc · 82%
2
100% acc · 67%
Body
4
100% acc · 18%
0
Leg
0

By position

3
27% acc · 100%
Distance
10
53% acc · 45%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
12
71% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sam Alvey rounds
0
even
1
Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds
Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:57Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
3 / 11
Sig Strikes
22 / 37
27%
Sig Str %
59%
3 / 11
Total Strikes
40 / 57
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michal Oleksiejczuk22 / 3740 / 570 / 00
1Sam Alvey3 / 113 / 110 / 10

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18