Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1431

Elo1489

Sam AlveyvsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:23

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Marcin Prachnio

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1431

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Marcin PrachnioL2 streak

oldest →

vs William Knight · Feb 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23

vs Devin Clark · Feb 24

SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricMarcin Prachnio

3.28

Strikes / min

5.52

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.15

52%

Strike defense

54%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.14

82%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.3|Blue +58.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

25% acc · 30%

Head

30% acc · 20%

100% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 27%

100% acc · 60%

Leg

100% acc · 53%

By position

53% acc · 90%

Distance

60% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

75% acc · 20%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Marcin Prachnio rounds

Round 1Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:41

Knockdowns2

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 19

Sig Strikes

15 / 24

52%

Sig Str %

62%

14 / 23

Total Strikes

36 / 45

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Prachnio	15 / 24	36 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Sam Alvey	10 / 19	14 / 23	1 / 1	0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11