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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Klidson Abreu won · U-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1385

Sam AlveyvsKlidson AbreuUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Klidson Abreu won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Klidson Abreu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Klidson Abreu enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Klidson Abreu

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1431

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Klidson AbreuL3 streak

oldest →

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Feb 19

vs Shamil Gamzatov · Nov 19

KOvs Jamahal Hill · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricKlidson Abreu

3.28

Strikes / min

2.05

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.64

82%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyKlidson Abreu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Klidson Abreu(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.0|Blue -46.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetKlidson Abreu

By target zone

23% acc · 43%

Head

28% acc · 47%

42% acc · 18%

Body

31% acc · 11%

92% acc · 39%

Leg

94% acc · 42%

By position

30% acc · 75%

Distance

41% acc · 97%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

75% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Klidson Abreu rounds

Round 1Klidson Abreu edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:47

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:13

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:33

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 77

Sig Strikes

36 / 89

35.3%

Sig Str %

44%

67 / 117

Total Strikes

61 / 115

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Klidson Abreu	13 / 25	27 / 39	0 / 2
1	Sam Alvey	6 / 21	18 / 34	0 / 0
2	Klidson Abreu	9 / 18	17 / 27	1 / 1
2	Sam Alvey	10 / 25	22 / 37	0 / 0
3	Klidson Abreu	14 / 46	17 / 49	0 / 0
3	Sam Alvey	12 / 31	27 / 46	0 / 1

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Klidson Abreu

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4