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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1431

Elo1358

Sam AlveyvsKevin CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:56

Model Prediction: Kevin Casey wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Casey at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kevin Casey has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Kevin Casey

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1431

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Kevin Casey

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricKevin Casey

3.28

Strikes / min

2.27

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

52%

Strike defense

46%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.79

82%

Takedown defense

27%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyKevin Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.8|Blue -72.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -165.0|Blue +165.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetKevin Casey

By target zone

41% acc · 61%

Head

31% acc · 44%

87% acc · 22%

Body

78% acc · 28%

91% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

40% acc · 49%

Distance

45% acc · 84%

89% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

57% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Kevin Casey rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 114

Sig Strikes

25 / 51

56%

Sig Str %

51.5%

70 / 125

Total Strikes

31 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

2:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Casey	13 / 20	19 / 27	0 / 2
1	Sam Alvey	19 / 29	22 / 32	0 / 0
2	Kevin Casey	12 / 31	12 / 31	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	40 / 85	48 / 93	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Kevin Casey

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4