Middleweight

3 Rounds

Julian Marquez won · SUB

Elo1431

Elo1481

Sam AlveyvsJulian MarquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Marquez won

SUB

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsJulian Marquez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Julian Marquez wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Julian Marquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Marquez at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Julian Marquez

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1431

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Julian MarquezL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricJulian Marquez

3.28

Strikes / min

5.06

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

52%

Strike defense

50%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.00

82%

Takedown defense

54%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyJulian Marquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.8|Blue +50.8

Recent Form

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetJulian Marquez

By target zone

33% acc · 72%

Head

59% acc · 75%

50% acc · 14%

Body

68% acc · 25%

67% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 97%

Distance

55% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

79% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Julian Marquez rounds

Round 1Julian Marquez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Julian Marquez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 78

Sig Strikes

61 / 100

32%

Sig Str %

60.5%

29 / 78

Total Strikes

62 / 101

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Marquez	27 / 52	28 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Sam Alvey	24 / 54	24 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Julian Marquez	34 / 48	34 / 48	0 / 0	1
2	Sam Alvey	5 / 24	5 / 24	0 / 0	0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8