Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R2

Elo1431

Elo1550

Sam AlveyvsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Saturday, February 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(88.5%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brendan Allen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1431

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricBrendan Allen

3.28

Strikes / min

3.59

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

52%

Strike defense

47%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

1.56

82%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -119.9|Blue +119.9

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

38% acc · 83%

Head

47% acc · 42%

67% acc · 8%

Body

93% acc · 39%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

68% acc · 89%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:07

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 57

Sig Strikes

36 / 54

41.5%

Sig Str %

65.5%

24 / 57

Total Strikes

36 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan Allen	25 / 37	25 / 37	0 / 1	0
1	Sam Alvey	18 / 43	18 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Brendan Allen	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0	1
2	Sam Alvey	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0	0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19