Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1360

Sam AlveyvsAlex NicholsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSam Alvey: StrikervsAlex Nicholson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sam Alvey

Red Corner

Alex Nicholson

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1431

Elo

1360

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Alex Nicholson

oldest →

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 16

KOvs Devin Clark · Jul 16

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam AlveyMetricAlex Nicholson

3.28

Strikes / min

4.12

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

52%

Strike defense

47%

0.06

TDs / 15 min

0.00

82%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sam AlveyAlex Nicholson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sam Alvey(10 fights)Alex Nicholson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.1|Blue -70.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -45.0|Blue +45.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam AlveyTargetAlex Nicholson

By target zone

35% acc · 62%

Head

36% acc · 62%

87% acc · 21%

Body

64% acc · 20%

85% acc · 17%

Leg

94% acc · 18%

By position

46% acc · 98%

Distance

45% acc · 99%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sam Alvey rounds

even

Alex Nicholson rounds

Round 1Alex Nicholson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:41

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alex Nicholson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 138

Sig Strikes

82 / 182

45.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

65 / 140

Total Strikes

82 / 182

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Nicholson	27 / 63	27 / 63	0 / 0
1	Sam Alvey	14 / 35	14 / 35	0 / 0
2	Alex Nicholson	30 / 67	30 / 67	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	27 / 47	29 / 49	0 / 2
3	Alex Nicholson	25 / 52	25 / 52	0 / 0
3	Sam Alvey	22 / 56	22 / 56	0 / 0

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Alex Nicholson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4