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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Warlley Alves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1375

Elo1489

Salim TouahrivsWarlley AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · Saturday, October 21, 2017Gdansk, Poland

Official fight result

Warlley Alves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Warlley Alves wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Warlley Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Warlley Alves at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Warlley Alves enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Salim Touahri has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Salim Touahri

Red Corner

Warlley Alves

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1375

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Salim TouahriL2 streak

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Dec 18

vs Mickey Gall · Aug 19

latest

Warlley AlvesL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mounir Lazzez · Jan 21

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jan 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 23

vs Abus Magomedov · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Salim TouahriMetricWarlley Alves

2.60

Strikes / min

3.04

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.22

83%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Salim TouahriWarlley Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Salim Touahri(3 fights)Warlley Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.4|Blue +114.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +48.5|Blue -48.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Salim TouahriTargetWarlley Alves

By target zone

31% acc · 34%

Head

28% acc · 39%

64% acc · 60%

Body

47% acc · 24%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

64% acc · 37%

By position

34% acc · 57%

Distance

34% acc · 74%

100% acc · 43%

Clinch

90% acc · 24%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Salim Touahri rounds

even

Warlley Alves rounds

Round 1Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:17

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Warlley Alves edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 74

Sig Strikes

38 / 95

46.7%

Sig Str %

40.7%

49 / 88

Total Strikes

55 / 113

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

35%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

3:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Warlley Alves	13 / 25	15 / 28	1 / 5
1	Salim Touahri	13 / 27	23 / 37	0 / 0
2	Warlley Alves	14 / 38	24 / 48	0 / 0
2	Salim Touahri	14 / 25	14 / 25	0 / 0
3	Warlley Alves	11 / 32	16 / 37	1 / 2
3	Salim Touahri	8 / 22	12 / 26	0 / 0

Salim Touahri

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Warlley Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16