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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Watson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Sako ChivitchianvsKyle WatsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Watson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kyle Watson wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Kyle Watson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Watson at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Watson has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sako Chivitchian

Red Corner

Kyle Watson

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

180 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sako ChivitchianNo prior UFC fights on record.

Kyle Watson

oldest →

KOvs John Makdessi · Apr 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sako ChivitchianMetricKyle Watson

2.40

Strikes / min

3.67

4.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

46%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.40Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+0.42

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sako Chivitchian(1 fights)Kyle Watson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sako ChivitchianTargetKyle Watson

By target zone

21% acc · 72%

Head

33% acc · 39%

100% acc · 17%

Body

94% acc · 43%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

81% acc · 18%

By position

22% acc · 69%

Distance

47% acc · 75%

69% acc · 31%

Clinch

90% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sako Chivitchian rounds

even

Kyle Watson rounds

Round 1Kyle Watson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control1:46

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Kyle Watson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:49

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Kyle Watson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:21

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 132

Sig Strikes

72 / 135

27.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

54 / 153

Total Strikes

88 / 159

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 12

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

2:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Watson	25 / 36	30 / 44	0 / 6
1	Sako Chivitchian	12 / 37	23 / 50	0 / 0
2	Kyle Watson	26 / 42	32 / 50	0 / 3
2	Sako Chivitchian	13 / 45	17 / 49	0 / 1
3	Kyle Watson	21 / 57	26 / 65	0 / 3
3	Sako Chivitchian	11 / 50	14 / 54	0 / 0

Sako Chivitchian

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Kyle Watson

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2