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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Marcos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1457

Elo1526

Saimon OliveiravsDaniel MarcosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Daniel Marcos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:18

Style matchupSaimon Oliveira: Submission grapplervsDaniel Marcos: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Daniel Marcos wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Daniel Marcos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Marcos at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Marcos has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Daniel Marcos has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Saimon Oliveira

Red Corner

Daniel Marcos

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1457

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Saimon OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tony Gravely · Jan 22

KOvs David Martinez · Mar 25

SUBvs Luan Lacerda · Oct 25

latest

Daniel Marcos

oldest →

vs Davey Grant · Jul 23

vs John Castaneda · Jun 24

vs Adrian Yanez · Dec 24

vs Montel Jackson · May 25

SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Saimon OliveiraMetricDaniel Marcos

2.62

Strikes / min

4.90

3.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

45%

Strike defense

61%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

1.35

36%

Takedown defense

85%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.25Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Saimon OliveiraDaniel Marcos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Saimon Oliveira(4 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.8|Blue +68.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Saimon OliveiraTargetDaniel Marcos

By target zone

15% acc · 30%

Head

60% acc · 58%

43% acc · 13%

Body

87% acc · 38%

81% acc · 57%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

32% acc · 87%

Distance

62% acc · 68%

43% acc · 13%

Clinch

84% acc · 30%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Saimon Oliveira rounds

even

Daniel Marcos rounds

Round 1Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:05

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 70

Sig Strikes

53 / 78

32.5%

Sig Str %

67.5%

25 / 73

Total Strikes

59 / 84

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Marcos	27 / 40	31 / 44	0 / 1
1	Saimon Oliveira	13 / 40	15 / 43	0 / 4
2	Daniel Marcos	26 / 38	28 / 40	0 / 0
2	Saimon Oliveira	10 / 30	10 / 30	0 / 1

Saimon Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Daniel Marcos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6