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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vinicius Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1538

Said NurmagomedovvsVinicius OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Vinicius Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grapplervsVinicius Oliveira: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Vinicius Oliveira wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Vinicius Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinicius Oliveira at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Vinicius Oliveira (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Said Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Vinicius Oliveira

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1493

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Said Nurmagomedov

oldest →

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Vinicius Oliveira

oldest →

KOvs Benardo Sopaj · Mar 24

vs Ricky Simon · Jun 24

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 25

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Feb 26

KOvs Andre Fili · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Said NurmagomedovMetricVinicius Oliveira

3.08

Strikes / min

4.73

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.45

63%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Said NurmagomedovVinicius Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Vinicius Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.2|Blue +45.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Said NurmagomedovTargetVinicius Oliveira

By target zone

33% acc · 47%

Head

38% acc · 56%

76% acc · 34%

Body

61% acc · 26%

88% acc · 18%

Leg

62% acc · 19%

By position

49% acc · 97%

Distance

42% acc · 72%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Vinicius Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:09

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 2Vinicius Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:49

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 3Vinicius Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 79

Sig Strikes

43 / 94

52%

Sig Str %

40.3%

69 / 111

Total Strikes

68 / 125

1 / 9

TDs

3 / 5

33.3%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

7:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinicius Oliveira	3 / 14	5 / 16	2 / 4	0
1	Said Nurmagomedov	12 / 21	28 / 37	1 / 1	0
2	Vinicius Oliveira	21 / 45	26 / 51	1 / 1	0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	13 / 38	21 / 46	0 / 5	0
3	Vinicius Oliveira	19 / 35	37 / 58	0 / 0	1
3	Said Nurmagomedov	13 / 20	20 / 28	0 / 3	0

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Vinicius Oliveira

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7