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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1497

Said NurmagomedovvsSaidyokub KakhramonovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:50

Style matchupSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grapplervsSaidyokub Kakhramonov: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Saidyokub Kakhramonov wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Saidyokub Kakhramonov at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saidyokub Kakhramonov has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Said Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1493

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Saidyokub KakhramonovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Trevin Jones · Aug 21

vs Ronnie Lawrence · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Said NurmagomedovMetricSaidyokub Kakhramonov

3.08

Strikes / min

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

0.88

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

6.63

63%

Takedown defense

83%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Said NurmagomedovSaidyokub Kakhramonov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Saidyokub Kakhramonov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.4|Blue +3.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Said NurmagomedovTargetSaidyokub Kakhramonov

By target zone

25% acc · 43%

Head

30% acc · 73%

60% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 27%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 43%

Distance

50% acc · 45%

67% acc · 57%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

32% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Saidyokub Kakhramonov rounds

Round 1Saidyokub Kakhramonov edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:09

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:29Control

Round 2Saidyokub Kakhramonov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:16

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 18

Sig Strikes

11 / 30

45.5%

Sig Str %

36%

21 / 34

Total Strikes

32 / 65

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 12

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

7:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saidyokub Kakhramonov	7 / 15	17 / 27	2 / 6	1
1	Said Nurmagomedov	3 / 12	13 / 24	0 / 1	1
2	Saidyokub Kakhramonov	4 / 15	15 / 38	3 / 6	0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	4 / 6	8 / 10	0 / 1	2

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Saidyokub Kakhramonov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3