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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1489

Said NurmagomedovvsMuin GafurovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Saturday, October 21, 2023Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grapplervsMuin Gafurov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Said Nurmagomedov at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Muin Gafurov has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Muin Gafurov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Said Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Muin Gafurov

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1493

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Said NurmagomedovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Muin Gafurov

oldest →

vs John Castaneda · Jun 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24

vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25

SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Said NurmagomedovMetricMuin Gafurov

3.08

Strikes / min

3.36

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.57

63%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Said NurmagomedovMuin Gafurov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.7|Blue -4.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Said NurmagomedovTargetMuin Gafurov

By target zone

29% acc · 40%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 40%

Body

50% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Muin Gafurov rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 11

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

45%

Sig Str %

33%

5 / 11

Total Strikes

1 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Muin Gafurov	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0
1	Said Nurmagomedov	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0	1

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Muin Gafurov

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5