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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · KO/TKO

Elo1493

Elo1418

Said NurmagomedovvsMark StrieglUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, October 17, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Said Nurmagomedov at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Said Nurmagomedov has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Mark Striegl (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Said Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Mark Striegl

Blue Corner

-435

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+317

(24%)

1493

Elo

1418

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Mark Striegl

oldest →

KOvs Chas Skelly · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Said NurmagomedovMetricMark Striegl

3.08

Strikes / min

1.40

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

55%

Strike defense

40%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

66%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 3.70 — meaningful gap-2.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Said NurmagomedovMark Striegl

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Mark Striegl(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.2|Blue -75.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Said NurmagomedovTargetMark Striegl

By target zone

77% acc · 94%

Head

20% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

43% acc · 17%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 22%

Clinch

85% acc · 61%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Mark Striegl rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 24

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

75%

Sig Str %

42%

18 / 24

Total Strikes

3 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Striegl	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 1	0
1	Said Nurmagomedov	18 / 24	18 / 24	0 / 0	0

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Mark Striegl

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2