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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1504

Said NurmagomedovvsJonathan MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grapplervsJonathan Martinez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at +198 American odds

+$198 profit

$298 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Said Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Jonathan Martinez

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+198

(34%)

1493

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · May 22

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Said NurmagomedovMetricJonathan Martinez

3.08

Strikes / min

4.44

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.38

63%

Takedown defense

68%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Said NurmagomedovJonathan Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Said NurmagomedovTargetJonathan Martinez

By target zone

50% acc · 53%

Head

52% acc · 34%

74% acc · 30%

Body

88% acc · 18%

89% acc · 17%

Leg

82% acc · 47%

By position

54% acc · 66%

Distance

59% acc · 58%

86% acc · 26%

Clinch

87% acc · 34%

57% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Jonathan Martinez rounds

Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:59

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:46

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 3Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:36

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 78

Sig Strikes

38 / 55

59.7%

Sig Str %

70.7%

101 / 134

Total Strikes

78 / 96

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

6:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jonathan Martinez	13 / 21	17 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Said Nurmagomedov	21 / 35	34 / 48	1 / 3	2
2	Jonathan Martinez	15 / 22	26 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	16 / 25	28 / 38	1 / 3	0
3	Jonathan Martinez	10 / 12	35 / 38	0 / 0	1
3	Said Nurmagomedov	10 / 18	39 / 48	1 / 3	0

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15