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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Zhang Lipeng won · Decision R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Sai WangvsZhang LipengUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · Saturday, March 1, 2014Macau, China

Official fight result

Zhang Lipeng won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sai Wang wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Zhang Lipeng wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sai Wang at -295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sai Wang

Red Corner

Zhang Lipeng

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sai Wang

oldest →

vs Danny Mitchell · Aug 14

latest

Zhang LipengL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Brendan O'Reilly · Aug 14

DECvs Chris Wade · Jan 15

DECvs Kajan Johnson · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sai WangMetricZhang Lipeng

3.17

Strikes / min

1.28

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

1.88

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.75

77%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.90Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.60

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sai Wang(2 fights)Zhang Lipeng(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.6|Blue -135.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sai WangTargetZhang Lipeng

By target zone

30% acc · 45%

Head

27% acc · 40%

33% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

61% acc · 45%

Leg

86% acc · 60%

By position

33% acc · 48%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

50% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

48% acc · 32%

Ground

50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sai Wang rounds

even

Zhang Lipeng rounds

Round 1Sai Wang edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:29

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Zhang Lipeng edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:17

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 3Sai Wang edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control3:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 79

Sig Strikes

10 / 25

38%

Sig Str %

47%

100 / 172

Total Strikes

37 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 10

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

7:11

Ctrl Time

3:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zhang Lipeng	5 / 15	7 / 20	1 / 1	2
1	Sai Wang	16 / 38	22 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Zhang Lipeng	2 / 3	7 / 9	3 / 6	0
2	Sai Wang	6 / 20	22 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Zhang Lipeng	3 / 7	23 / 31	0 / 3	0
3	Sai Wang	9 / 21	56 / 80	0 / 0	0

Sai Wang

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Zhang Lipeng

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4