Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sabina Mazo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1420

Elo1493

Sabina MazovsShana DobsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Sabina Mazo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sabina Mazo wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Sabina Mazo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sabina Mazo at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sabina Mazo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sabina Mazo has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sabina Mazo

Red Corner

Shana Dobson

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1420

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sabina MazoL3 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Jan 20

SUBvs Justine Kish · Sep 20

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 21

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Oct 21

SUBvs Miranda Maverick · Mar 22

latest

Shana Dobson

oldest →

KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20

KOvs Mariya Agapova · Aug 20

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sabina MazoMetricShana Dobson

6.10

Strikes / min

3.34

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

57%

Strike defense

50%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.84

59%

Takedown defense

14%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 3.61 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sabina MazoShana Dobson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sabina Mazo(7 fights)Shana Dobson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -73.1|Blue +73.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sabina MazoTargetShana Dobson

By target zone

50% acc · 45%

Head

25% acc · 58%

83% acc · 46%

Body

61% acc · 33%

69% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

52% acc · 41%

Distance

20% acc · 42%

69% acc · 35%

Clinch

65% acc · 45%

84% acc · 24%

Ground

80% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sabina Mazo rounds

even

Shana Dobson rounds

Round 1Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns2

Control4:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:29

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns1

Control2:56

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

108 / 171

Sig Strikes

33 / 99

63%

Sig Str %

32%

170 / 250

Total Strikes

102 / 176

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:50

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shana Dobson	6 / 20	14 / 31	0 / 0
1	Sabina Mazo	30 / 46	72 / 102	2 / 2
2	Shana Dobson	19 / 43	47 / 74	0 / 0
2	Sabina Mazo	23 / 36	26 / 39	1 / 1
3	Shana Dobson	8 / 36	41 / 71	0 / 0
3	Sabina Mazo	55 / 89	72 / 109	1 / 1

Sabina Mazo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Shana Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6