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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Maryna Moroz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1420

Elo1493

Sabina MazovsMaryna MorozUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Maryna Moroz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSabina Mazo: Pressure fightervsMaryna Moroz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Maryna Moroz wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Maryna Moroz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maryna Moroz at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sabina Mazo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Maryna Moroz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sabina Mazo has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sabina Mazo

Red Corner

Maryna Moroz

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1420

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sabina MazoL3 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Jan 20

SUBvs Justine Kish · Sep 20

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 21

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Oct 21

SUBvs Miranda Maverick · Mar 22

latest

Maryna MorozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Mar 20

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Mar 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Nov 22

SUBvs Karine Silva · Aug 23

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sabina MazoMetricMaryna Moroz

6.10

Strikes / min

4.42

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.89

57%

Strike defense

51%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.70

59%

Takedown defense

42%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sabina MazoMaryna Moroz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sabina Mazo(7 fights)Maryna Moroz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -73.1|Blue +73.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.5|Blue -48.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sabina MazoTargetMaryna Moroz

By target zone

24% acc · 33%

Head

18% acc · 48%

76% acc · 30%

Body

64% acc · 32%

75% acc · 38%

Leg

92% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 95%

Distance

27% acc · 84%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

44% acc · 7%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

71% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sabina Mazo rounds

even

Maryna Moroz rounds

Round 1Maryna Moroz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 2Maryna Moroz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 3Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 144

Sig Strikes

56 / 190

47%

Sig Str %

28.7%

73 / 157

Total Strikes

74 / 208

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 9

—

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maryna Moroz	9 / 33	14 / 38	1 / 4
1	Sabina Mazo	9 / 15	13 / 22	0 / 0
2	Maryna Moroz	23 / 73	33 / 83	0 / 4
2	Sabina Mazo	16 / 50	21 / 55	0 / 0
3	Maryna Moroz	24 / 84	27 / 87	0 / 1
3	Sabina Mazo	39 / 79	39 / 80	0 / 0

Sabina Mazo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Maryna Moroz

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11