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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mariya Agapova won · SUB R3

Elo1420

Elo1491

Sabina MazovsMariya AgapovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mariya Agapova won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:53

Style matchupSabina Mazo: Pressure fightervsMariya Agapova: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sabina Mazo wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Mariya Agapova wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sabina Mazo at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mariya Agapova enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mariya Agapova threatens submissions; Sabina Mazo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sabina Mazo

Red Corner

Mariya Agapova

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1420

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sabina MazoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shana Dobson · Aug 19

vs JJ Aldrich · Jan 20

SUBvs Justine Kish · Sep 20

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 21

SUBvs Miranda Maverick · Mar 22

latest

Mariya AgapovaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20

KOvs Shana Dobson · Aug 20

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22

SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sabina MazoMetricMariya Agapova

6.10

Strikes / min

4.43

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.55

59%

Takedown defense

45%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sabina MazoMariya Agapova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sabina Mazo(7 fights)Mariya Agapova(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.1|Blue +71.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -189.0|Blue +189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sabina MazoTargetMariya Agapova

By target zone

31% acc · 56%

Head

45% acc · 52%

59% acc · 21%

Body

74% acc · 34%

58% acc · 23%

Leg

93% acc · 14%

By position

39% acc · 98%

Distance

56% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sabina Mazo rounds

even

Mariya Agapova rounds

Round 1Mariya Agapova edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:07

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:23

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mariya Agapova edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 159

Sig Strikes

93 / 164

39%

Sig Str %

54.3%

63 / 161

Total Strikes

99 / 170

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mariya Agapova	53 / 86	56 / 89	0 / 0	0
1	Sabina Mazo	28 / 75	28 / 75	0 / 0	0
2	Mariya Agapova	29 / 57	30 / 58	0 / 0	0
2	Sabina Mazo	28 / 69	28 / 69	0 / 0	0
3	Mariya Agapova	11 / 21	13 / 23	0 / 0	1
3	Sabina Mazo	6 / 15	7 / 17	0 / 0	0

Sabina Mazo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6