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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sabina Mazo won · SUB

Elo1420

Elo1399

Sabina MazovsJustine KishUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sabina Mazo won

SUB

Style matchupSabina Mazo: Pressure fightervsJustine Kish: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sabina Mazo wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Sabina Mazo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sabina Mazo at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sabina Mazo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sabina Mazo has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sabina Mazo

Red Corner

Justine Kish

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1420

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sabina MazoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Shana Dobson · Aug 19

vs JJ Aldrich · Jan 20

vs Alexis Davis · Feb 21

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Oct 21

SUBvs Miranda Maverick · Mar 22

latest

Justine Kish

oldest →

vs Ashley Yoder · Dec 16

vs Felice Herrig · Jun 17

vs Ji Yeon Kim · Jan 18

DECvs Luci Pudilova · Jan 20

vs Tracy Cortez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sabina MazoMetricJustine Kish

6.10

Strikes / min

4.51

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

57%

Strike defense

57%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

0.87

59%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap-0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sabina MazoJustine Kish

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sabina Mazo(7 fights)Justine Kish(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.7|Blue -20.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sabina MazoTargetJustine Kish

By target zone

28% acc · 34%

Head

21% acc · 27%

71% acc · 21%

Body

61% acc · 25%

75% acc · 45%

Leg

83% acc · 48%

By position

123

47% acc · 94%

Distance

44% acc · 95%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sabina Mazo rounds

even

Justine Kish rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sabina Mazo edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

131 / 275

Sig Strikes

93 / 210

46.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

131 / 275

Total Strikes

94 / 212

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justine Kish	34 / 72	35 / 74	1 / 1	0
1	Sabina Mazo	37 / 85	37 / 85	0 / 0	0
2	Justine Kish	28 / 67	28 / 67	0 / 2	0
2	Sabina Mazo	42 / 88	42 / 88	0 / 0	0
3	Justine Kish	31 / 71	31 / 71	0 / 0	0
3	Sabina Mazo	52 / 102	52 / 102	0 / 0	1

Sabina Mazo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Justine Kish

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7