Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · S-DEC R3

Elo1519

Elo1431

Ryan SpannvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsSam Alvey: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(79.7%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sam Alvey has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1519

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricSam Alvey

3.11

Strikes / min

3.28

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

43%

Strike defense

52%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.06

59%

Takedown defense

82%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.2|Blue -88.2

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

40% acc · 80%

Head

44% acc · 70%

77% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

93% acc · 25%

By position

44% acc · 94%

Distance

49% acc · 81%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

79% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:01

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:28

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:32

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 115

Sig Strikes

57 / 108

43%

Sig Str %

54%

52 / 116

Total Strikes

103 / 156

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Alvey	17 / 25	57 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Spann	9 / 27	9 / 27	2 / 4	1
2	Sam Alvey	15 / 39	17 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan Spann	22 / 39	23 / 40	0 / 1	0
3	Sam Alvey	25 / 44	29 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Ryan Spann	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 2	0

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23