Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · SUB R1

Elo1519

Elo1497

Ryan SpannvsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:35

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Ovince Saint Preux has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1519

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 20

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricOvince Saint Preux

3.11

Strikes / min

3.03

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

43%

Strike defense

47%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.09

59%

Takedown defense

67%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.6|Blue -21.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

67% acc · 29%

40% acc · 22%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 71%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

70% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 20

Sig Strikes

7 / 10

45%

Sig Str %

70%

9 / 20

Total Strikes

7 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ovince Saint Preux	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 1	0
1	Ryan Spann	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 0	1

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28