Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lukasz Brzeski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Spann has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan Spann
oldest →L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Sep 26 Lukasz BrzeskiL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 23L
KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23W
vs Valter Walker · Apr 24L
KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24L
KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan SpannMetricLukasz Brzeski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.81Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan SpannLukasz Brzeski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Spann(10 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +48.2|Blue -48.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan SpannTargetLukasz Brzeski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Spann edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control2:14
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
