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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · SUB R1

Elo1519

Elo1498

Ryan SpannvsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:22

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Ion Cutelaba has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Ion Cutelaba has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).
Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Ion Cutelaba

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1519

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricIon Cutelaba

3.11

Strikes / min

4.23

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

43%

Strike defense

47%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

3.76

59%

Takedown defense

75%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.2|Blue -21.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

36% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 50%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Ion Cutelaba rounds

Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:04

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 11

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

36%

Sig Str %

22%

5 / 12

Total Strikes

2 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ion Cutelaba	2 / 9	2 / 9	3 / 3	0
1	Ryan Spann	4 / 11	5 / 12	0 / 0	1

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20