Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · SUB R2

Elo1519

Elo1496

Ryan SpannvsDevin ClarkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:01

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsDevin Clark: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Spann at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Devin Clark has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Devin Clark

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1519

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricDevin Clark

3.11

Strikes / min

3.03

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

43%

Strike defense

44%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

2.17

59%

Takedown defense

58%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannDevin Clark

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Devin Clark(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.9|Blue -22.9

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetDevin Clark

By target zone

32% acc · 82%

Head

30% acc · 47%

75% acc · 18%

Body

88% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

22% acc · 47%

Distance

38% acc · 65%

75% acc · 53%

Clinch

75% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Devin Clark rounds

Round 1Devin Clark edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:02

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:06

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 48

Sig Strikes

17 / 37

35.5%

Sig Str %

45.5%

17 / 48

Total Strikes

22 / 42

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Devin Clark	10 / 22	15 / 27	2 / 2	0
1	Ryan Spann	6 / 25	6 / 25	0 / 1	0
2	Devin Clark	7 / 15	7 / 15	0 / 1	0
2	Ryan Spann	11 / 23	11 / 23	0 / 0	1

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17