Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shamar Bailey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

Ryan McGillivrayvsShamar BaileyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shamar Bailey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ryan McGillivray wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Shamar Bailey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan McGillivray at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamar Bailey has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan McGillivray

Red Corner

Shamar Bailey

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan McGillivrayNo prior UFC fights on record.

Shamar BaileyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Evan Dunham · Sep 11

KOvs Danny Castillo · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan McGillivrayMetricShamar Bailey

1.27

Strikes / min

1.56

2.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

52%

Strike defense

69%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.50

44%

Takedown defense

37%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-2.35

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan McGillivray(1 fights)Shamar Bailey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.0|Blue -139.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan McGillivrayTargetShamar Bailey

By target zone

20% acc · 89%

Head

38% acc · 64%

67% acc · 11%

Body

90% acc · 27%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

20% acc · 95%

Distance

41% acc · 61%

Clinch

89% acc · 24%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

45% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan McGillivray rounds

even

Shamar Bailey rounds

Round 1Shamar Bailey edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 2Shamar Bailey edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:08Control

Round 3Shamar Bailey edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 91

Sig Strikes

33 / 69

20.3%

Sig Str %

51%

25 / 97

Total Strikes

63 / 105

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 9

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

9:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamar Bailey	16 / 39	24 / 48	2 / 3
1	Ryan McGillivray	7 / 41	8 / 42	0 / 1
2	Shamar Bailey	10 / 15	17 / 24	1 / 2
2	Ryan McGillivray	3 / 16	8 / 21	0 / 0
3	Shamar Bailey	7 / 15	22 / 33	2 / 4
3	Ryan McGillivray	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 0

Ryan McGillivray

Stance—

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Shamar Bailey

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3