Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gutierrez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1376

Elo1508

Ryan MacDonaldvsChris GutierrezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Gutierrez has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Gutierrez has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan MacDonald (52.9%).
Ryan MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan MacDonald

Red Corner

Chris Gutierrez

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1376

Elo

1508

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan MacDonald

oldest →

KOvs Louis Smolka · Sep 19

latest

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan MacDonaldMetricChris Gutierrez

2.28

Strikes / min

4.40

6.49

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

45%

Strike defense

63%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.30

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-4.21Δ 5.96 — meaningful gap+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan MacDonaldChris Gutierrez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan MacDonald(2 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.5|Blue +131.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan MacDonaldTargetChris Gutierrez

By target zone

7% acc · 27%

Head

29% acc · 22%

17% acc · 7%

Body

72% acc · 30%

77% acc · 67%

Leg

80% acc · 48%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan MacDonald rounds

even

Chris Gutierrez rounds

Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:07

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:40

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 75

Sig Strikes

69 / 121

20%

Sig Str %

57.3%

15 / 75

Total Strikes

70 / 123

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Gutierrez	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0
1	Ryan MacDonald	6 / 23	6 / 23	0 / 0
2	Chris Gutierrez	27 / 44	28 / 46	0 / 0
2	Ryan MacDonald	3 / 26	3 / 26	0 / 3
3	Chris Gutierrez	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0
3	Ryan MacDonald	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 0

Ryan MacDonald

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14