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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Azamat Bekoev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1477

Elo1487

Ryan LodervsAzamat BekoevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 3, 2025Des Moines, Iowa, USA

Official fight result

Azamat Bekoev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:44

Style matchupRyan Loder: Submission grapplervsAzamat Bekoev: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Azamat Bekoev wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Azamat Bekoev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Azamat Bekoev at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Loder is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Azamat Bekoev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Azamat Bekoev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ryan Loder has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Ryan Loder has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Loder has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Loder (53.5%).
Ryan Loder has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Loder

Red Corner

Azamat Bekoev

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1477

Elo

1487

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Loder

oldest →

KOvs Robert Valentin · Aug 24

KOvs Ismail Naurdiev · Nov 25

latest

Azamat BekoevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zach Reese · Jan 25

KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Oct 25

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan LoderMetricAzamat Bekoev

5.10

Strikes / min

4.57

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

6.83

50%

Strike defense

31%

1.37

TDs / 15 min

3.48

100%

Takedown defense

62%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.64Δ 4.90 — meaningful gap-2.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan LoderAzamat Bekoev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Loder(3 fights)Azamat Bekoev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.2|Blue +10.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan LoderTargetAzamat Bekoev

By target zone

40% acc · 46%

Head

50% acc · 91%

70% acc · 54%

Body

50% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 46%

Distance

55% acc · 74%

88% acc · 54%

Clinch

45% acc · 22%

Ground

25% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Loder rounds

even

Azamat Bekoev rounds

Round 1Azamat Bekoev edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 25

Sig Strikes

23 / 46

52%

Sig Str %

50%

15 / 27

Total Strikes

39 / 66

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Azamat Bekoev	23 / 46	39 / 66	0 / 1	0
1	Ryan Loder	13 / 25	15 / 27	0 / 4	0

Ryan Loder

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Azamat Bekoev

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4