Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Ryan LaFlarevsRoan CarneiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ryan LaFlare won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan LaFlare: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roan Carneiro has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan LaFlare

Red Corner

Roan Carneiro

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan LaFlare

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Mar 15

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17

vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Roan Carneiro

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Feb 16

vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan LaFlareMetricRoan Carneiro

2.89

Strikes / min

1.46

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

1.82

63%

Strike defense

62%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

3.05

58%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan LaFlareRoan Carneiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +281.0|Blue -281.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan LaFlareTargetRoan Carneiro

By target zone

21% acc · 45%

Head

29% acc · 63%

56% acc · 48%

Body

50% acc · 11%

67% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

25% acc · 59%

Distance

25% acc · 53%

63% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

47% acc · 24%

Ground

86% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan LaFlare rounds

even

Roan Carneiro rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:08

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control3:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:58

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 91

Sig Strikes

19 / 50

31.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

51 / 116

Total Strikes

25 / 56

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:09

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roan Carneiro	6 / 17	6 / 17	0 / 2
1	Ryan LaFlare	9 / 28	10 / 30	0 / 1
2	Roan Carneiro	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 1
2	Ryan LaFlare	11 / 29	24 / 43	0 / 1
3	Roan Carneiro	12 / 27	18 / 33	0 / 1
3	Ryan LaFlare	9 / 34	17 / 43	1 / 2

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Roan Carneiro

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4