Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1356

Ryan LaFlarevsMike PierceUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan LaFlare won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRyan LaFlare: WrestlervsMike Pierce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan LaFlare

Red Corner

Mike Pierce

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1491

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan LaFlare

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Mar 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17

vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Mike Pierce

oldest →

vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Jun 12

KOvs Aaron Simpson · Oct 12

vs Seth Baczynski · Dec 12

KOvs David Mitchell · Jul 13

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan LaFlareMetricMike Pierce

2.89

Strikes / min

2.62

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

63%

Strike defense

62%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

3.08

58%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan LaFlareMike Pierce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Mike Pierce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.4|Blue -135.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -528.0|Blue +528.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan LaFlareTargetMike Pierce

By target zone

25% acc · 57%

Head

28% acc · 71%

61% acc · 35%

Body

54% acc · 17%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

32% acc · 88%

Distance

31% acc · 79%

62% acc · 12%

Clinch

45% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan LaFlare rounds

even

Mike Pierce rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 189

Sig Strikes

42 / 127

34%

Sig Str %

30.7%

78 / 202

Total Strikes

44 / 130

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Pierce	5 / 25	5 / 26	0 / 2
1	Ryan LaFlare	15 / 45	20 / 50	0 / 1
2	Mike Pierce	14 / 40	15 / 41	0 / 1
2	Ryan LaFlare	25 / 81	27 / 83	0 / 1
3	Mike Pierce	23 / 62	24 / 63	0 / 0
3	Ryan LaFlare	25 / 63	31 / 69	0 / 0

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Mike Pierce

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12